According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Russian attacks on infrastructure and the blockade of seaports in the second half of 2026 will reduce the growth rate of real GDP by 1,9 percentage points, the October inflation report says.
Main factor - shutdown of metallurgical enterprises
The single largest factor cited by the NBU is the halt of the largest metallurgical enterprises, which on its own will reduce GDP growth by 0,7 percentage points for 2026. Part of the losses will fall not only directly on metallurgy but also on related sectors due to reduced demand for their products and services.
Losses in individual quarters: 0,7 percentage points and 1,2 percentage points
The regulator estimates GDP losses in the III quarter of 2026 at 0,7 percentage points, and in the IV quarter another 1,2 percentage points. “The intensification of Russia’s attacks on enterprises and infrastructure together with the blockade of ports have led to a sharp slowdown in economic activity and, at the same time, increased price pressure,” the NBU notes.
Logistics, exports and losses in the agricultural sector
In its baseline scenario the NBU assumes the blockade of the ports of Greater Odesa will last until mid-2027, which will limit export opportunities of the mining and metallurgical complex and the agricultural sector. “Destruction of production capacities and prolonged idling of metallurgical enterprises will lead to a significant reduction in production and a decline in metal product exports,” the report says.
The regulator also notes the risks of expensive alternative logistics that will reduce the profitability of iron ore extraction and lead to product accumulation. At the same time, the reduction in agricultural exports will be the cause of a deterioration in the external trade balance by $6,6 billion.
