According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in a new report says that the regulator is increasingly using big data and artificial intelligence to make timely assessments of economic changes.
How the approach to data collection is changing
The full-scale war has complicated economic analysis: destruction of enterprises, disruptions in logistics and frequent changes in conditions have made official statistics less timely. Because of this the regulator has begun using alternative sources, big data and artificial intelligence tools.
The analysis includes monitoring news and using synthetic surveys to more quickly track the sentiment of businesses and other economic participants. This allows earlier detection of signs of economic shocks and assessment of their potential impact.
Role of models and oversight of decisions
Artificial intelligence does not make final decisions in place of economists: the regulator tests new indicators, compares them with official data and uses them in the preparation of macroeconomic forecasts. Control over the data and models remains with the authority.
The report also notes that some tools help detect early signals of shocks, but final policy steps and assessments are prepared by specialists. New indicators are checked for consistency with traditional statistics.
Forecasts for inflation, the policy rate and economic growth
According to the forecast, inflation at the end of 2026 will accelerate to 12.5%. The reasons cited include rising fuel prices, higher business costs due to destruction of production and logistics infrastructure, and an expansion of fiscal stimulus at the end of the year.
In 2027 inflation is expected to slow to 7.3%, and in 2028 return to the target of 5%. To restrain price pressures the regulator is tightening monetary policy: in July–October 2026 the policy rate was raised from 15% to 16.5%.
Expectations for GDP, wages and risks
Economic recovery is expected to be slow: the forecast anticipates a contraction of real GDP by 0.4% in 2026, growth of 0.4% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028. Among the restraining factors named are Russian attacks, destruction of infrastructure and labour shortages.
The shortage of workers is linked to mobilisation and migration; the forecast expects real wages to rise by 11.4% in 2026, while growth rates in 2027–2028 are expected to slow to 4–5% per year. Projections will depend on the volume of international financial support, improvements in logistics and reductions in security risks, and the regulator warns that further Russian attacks could worsen the situation and increase inflationary pressure.
