According to ICU, analysts expect that by the end of the year the dollar exchange rate may rise to 45.8 UAH, and annual inflation will accelerate to 12%.
Last week the overall currency deficit in the market fell by about a third — to $0.7 billion. At the same time the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced the volume of foreign exchange interventions by only 5%; intervention volumes exceeded $1.2 billion. Foreign exchange interventions are the NBU’s purchases or sales of foreign currency to smooth exchange rate fluctuations.
The NBU’s official exchange rate also moved moderately. On Monday the central bank allowed the dollar to rise above 45 UAH, but this lasted one day. Over the week the hryvnia strengthened by 0.2% — to 44.88 UAH per dollar — while since the start of 2026 it has weakened by 6%.
Analysts explain that the large volume of interventions is partly linked to banks replenishing their currency inventories after meeting client demand at the end of September and start of October. Clients’ currency deficit decreased thanks to increased supply from companies, but a structural deficit remains due to import needs for components for weapons production and the restoration of energy infrastructure.
ICU expects that the NBU will continue supporting the market with sizeable interventions, which should help avoid a sharp weakening of the hryvnia, and forecasts a gradual approach of the exchange rate to 45.8 UAH by the end of 2026.
Households are actively buying domestic government bonds (OVDP): in September the portfolio of individuals rose by almost 3%, and since the start of the year by about 53%. The total size of the household portfolio has already exceeded 171 billion UAH, and the share of individuals in the total volume of OVDP outstanding (excluding bonds held by the NBU) has risen to 12.5%. The banks’ share fell by 3.4 percentage points (pp), and that of legal entities by 0.6 percentage points (pp); over the nine months of 2026 banks’ OVDP portfolios decreased by 2.3%, while corporate holdings increased by 0.2%.
Analysts note that bonds outperform bank deposits in terms of yield and tax treatment, and access to the market has been eased by mobile apps. ICU also expects that the Ministry of Finance will not, for now, react to the National Bank raising the policy rate to 16% — the policy rate is the NBU’s key rate, which affects the cost of credit and the returns on market instruments — and will only offer higher yields on individual OVDP issues on a situational basis. A possible revision of the state budget and an increase in planned domestic borrowing could lead to a rise in bond yields in November–December.
In September annual inflation accelerated to 10% from 8.1% in August, core inflation rose to 8.8% from 8.1% a month earlier, and monthly inflation stood at 2.1% — the highest September reading since 2015. One of the factors cited is seasonal price increases, which were more pronounced this year.
What to watch in the coming days: the NBU’s volume of foreign exchange interventions, the currency deficit indicator ($0.7 billion), the NBU’s official exchange rate (44.88 UAH per dollar at the end of the week), annual inflation (10% in September), as well as the size and share of the household OVDP portfolio (171 billion UAH and 12.5%) and the Ministry of Finance’s decisions on OVDP placements and plans for domestic borrowing.
