Hanna Zolotko, a member of the management board of Unex Bank, said the official dollar exchange rate during 12−16 October showed a wave-like dynamic: 44.8894 UAH on 12 October, rose to 45.0802 UAH on 14 October and fell to 44.8871 UAH on 16 October.
Cash foreign-exchange market 12−16 October
The cash market started the week at 44.65−45.21 UAH/$. On Tuesday and Wednesday rates rose slightly to 44.77−45.31 UAH/$ and 44.76−45.30 UAH/$ respectively.
On Thursday quotes fell to 44.71−45.25 UAH/$, and on Friday rates were 44.65−45.19 UAH/$. Overall cash quotes remained close to the 45 UAH/$ mark.
Interbank market, interventions by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and reserves
The interbank market showed an increase at the start of the week: the selling rate rose from 44.92 to 45.05 UAH/$ on Monday and reached 45.14 UAH/$ on Tuesday, after which it corrected to 44.90 UAH/$ on Thursday and 44.91 UAH/$ at Friday’s close. The interbank market is where banks trade currency with each other.
The volume of interventions by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) for 12−16 October amounted to $1,312.69 million, almost 11% more than $1,168.43 million for 21−25 September. A similar volume of interventions — $1,329 million — was recorded on 31 August − 4 September. In September the NBU’s net sale of currency amounted to $5.519 billion, the largest monthly sale in 2026.
Factors likely to affect the exchange rate this week
She said the market this week will most likely operate in conditions of controlled fluctuations, with risks of a gradual easing of pressure on the hryvnia. Zolotko named actions by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), which require foreign-currency resources, as the key factor for short-term stability.
In September Ukraine’s international reserves fell to $47.1 billion. Business demand for foreign currency to pay for imports of fuel, energy equipment and machinery, logistics costs and enterprise restoration can increase demand for the dollar. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) kept the key policy rate at 16% in September — the key policy rate is the rate set by the NBU to influence the cost of money, and a high rate makes hryvnia assets more attractive.
Without new major energy disruptions, these factors are not necessarily going to trigger a sharp jump in the rate, but the trade imbalance and high import demand could put pressure on the hryvnia, she said.
What to watch in the coming days: the official NBU exchange rate, interbank quotes, the volume of NBU interventions, the level of international reserves, the key policy rate, and the dynamics of import demand and the energy situation.
