According to the analytical study Ukraine Economic Outlook, raising taxation on banks may lead to reduced lending, more expensive financial services and a decline in the sector’s investment appeal. The study was prepared with the participation of Serhii Mamedov, Vice‑President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.
Italy: a fall in market capitalisation and almost zero receipts
In 2023 the Italian government announced the introduction of a 40% tax on banks’ excess profits with expected additional revenues of about 3 billion euros. The market reaction was immediate: in a single day the sector lost around 10 billion euros of market capitalisation.
The government allowed banks to channel funds into special capital reserves instead of paying the tax, and almost all large banks used this option. As a result, the initial mechanism delivered virtually zero revenues to the budget instead of the forecast 3 billion euros.
Romania: the “greed tax” and a big gap between forecast and reality
At the end of 2018 Romania introduced the so‑called “greed tax” linked to interbank rates. In one day the BET stock index fell by roughly 11%, and the shares of major banks lost 17–20% of their value.
After revising the measure the budget received about 444 million lei instead of the projected 3.4–3.6 billion lei, meaning actual receipts were roughly 8 times lower than expected.
Poland and Hungary: changing incentives and long‑term lending reduction
In Poland, after the 2016 levy on bank assets was introduced, government bonds were exempted from the new charge, creating a tax advantage for buying them over lending to businesses. According to the study, between 2015 and 2019 the ratio of corporate loans to GDP fell from 17.7% to 16.8%.
At the same time, banks’ financing of the state rose from 16.3% to 19.5% of GDP, and the National Bank of Poland noted that banks passed part of the tax burden on to customers by changing lending and deposit rates. In Hungary a temporary tax on bank assets, introduced in 2010, remains in force in 2026 and was accompanied by other specific levies.
United Kingdom: reducing the banking surcharge on corporation tax
The United Kingdom reviewed the parameters of its special bank levy to preserve London’s competitiveness as an international financial centre. In 2023 the government reduced the surcharge on banks’ corporation tax from 8% to 3%.
This approach contrasts with practices in other countries, where market reactions and changes in bank behaviour led to undesirable outcomes for lending and market capitalisation.
Verkhovna Rada decision and potential risks for Ukraine
In its decision of 27 October 2026 the Verkhovna Rada backed in the first reading draft law No. 15262 with 265 votes. The draft envisages extending into 2027 an increased rate of banks’ corporation tax of 50% and limiting the ability to offset past years’ losses for tax purposes.
Before the bill is finally adopted, the study emphasises the need to assess not only the expected budget revenues but also the possible long‑term consequences for lending, investment and economic recovery.
“The effectiveness of additional taxation of banks cannot be measured solely by the amount of money that flows into the budget. It is equally important to consider its impact on lending, the cost of financial services, investment attractiveness and the banking system’s ability to support economic growth. This international experience is of particular significance for Ukraine, which in wartime must both finance state needs and create conditions for further economic recovery. A choice arises between short‑term fiscal effect and long‑term economic returns,” the study concludes.
