Ukrainians are again noticing unwelcome changes on price tags. Food, fuel, transport and even everyday services are gradually becoming more expensive. And this is no longer just a feeling after another trip to the supermarket. Inflation in Ukraine in September 2026 accelerated to 10% year on year, while it was 8.1% in August.
Over one month consumer prices jumped by 2.1%. For the economy this is a fairly significant increase. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) acknowledged that the situation has turned out to be more difficult than expected over the summer.
There are several reasons at once. Russian attacks on enterprises and warehouses, more expensive fuel, transport problems and additional costs for producers. All of this gradually feeds into the final price of goods that ordinary shoppers pay for.
Inflation in Ukraine accelerated. What the new figures show
As late as the end of summer it looked like price growth had calmed somewhat. In August monthly inflation was only 0.1%. But September quickly changed the picture.
According to the State Statistics Service (Derzhstat), consumer prices in September rose by 2.1% compared with August. On an annual basis inflation reached 10%. The price increases affected not just one category but a wide range of goods and services.
By comparison, in June annual inflation was 7.2%, in July it rose to 7.7%, and in August it reached 8.1%. So the indicator rose by almost three percentage points in three months.
To understand the scale of the change, a simple example is enough. If a certain shopping basket cost 3 000 UAH last year, then with a uniform 10% price increase today it would cost 3 300 UAH.
Of course, this is a hypothetical calculation. In reality some products get more expensive faster, others more slowly, and some even become cheaper. But the overall trend remains noticeable.
Why prices are rising. The NBU named the main reasons
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) explains that the current acceleration of inflation is not only due to normal seasonal fluctuations. The consequences of the war and rising costs for Ukrainian business play a major role.
Companies have to operate under constant risk. Damaged infrastructure, disrupted delivery routes and the need to rebuild production increase the cost of goods.
Imagine an ordinary dairy producer. It needs to buy raw materials, keep refrigeration running, make the products and deliver them to shops. If electricity or fuel becomes more expensive, costs rise at several stages at once.
And when shelling forces firms to change routes or find a different warehouse, the situation becomes even more complicated.
Businesses cannot always cover these costs from their own funds. So part of the additional financial burden is gradually built into retail prices.
Russian strikes affect even the price of food
The link between a damaged warehouse and the price of products on the shelf is not always obvious. But it is very real.
If a company loses storage facilities it has to rent new ones. Sometimes products must be transported over longer distances, using additional transport or storage equipment.
This is especially true of perishable goods. Meat, fish, dairy products and frozen semi-finished goods require stable storage conditions.
Any interruptions in refrigeration or transport increase suppliers’ costs. Over time this can be reflected in retail prices.
Fuel became 46.2% more expensive. Why everyone will feel this
One of the most notable figures in September’s statistics concerns fuel. According to the NBU’s estimates, its price rose by 46.2% over the year.
The cause was sharp fluctuations in prices on the international petroleum products market. Wholesalers felt the changes first, and then they reached Ukrainian filling stations.
Petrol and diesel fuel increased the most in price. Auto gas also rose, but more slowly.
For drivers this means higher refuelling costs. For example, if a full tank used to cost 2 000 UAH, after a 46.2% increase the same amount of fuel would cost 2 924 UAH.
However, the consequences are not limited to motorists.
Diesel is used by farmers during fieldwork. Trucks transport goods between cities every day, and courier services deliver orders to customers. When fuel becomes more expensive, all these services become costlier.
That is why fuel prices in Ukraine affect almost the entire consumer market, even for people who do not own a car at all.
Food prices are rising again. What’s happening in shops
In autumn buyers traditionally expect cheaper vegetables and fruit. New harvests appear, markets fill with seasonal produce and choice increases.
But this year the seasonal factor could not fully contain the price rises.
According to the NBU, the increase in raw food prices accelerated to 6.7% year on year. The situation was affected by smaller harvests of some crops, reduced stocks and higher production costs.
Eggs are rising in price again after summer declines
The change in egg prices was particularly noticeable.
They had been getting cheaper for three months, but in September the situation sharply reversed. According to Derzhstat, egg prices jumped by 43.6% in a single month.
The reasons are not only seasonal demand. Poultry farms are spending more on feed, energy and ensuring production runs.
Even a small rise in the cost of keeping birds becomes significant when it comes to large farms.
Producers also have to pay for transport, packaging and storage. All this affects the final price of a dozen eggs.
Soup-set vegetables are also under pressure
Potatoes, cabbage, beetroot and carrots remain everyday staples. Even small price changes are quickly noticed by shoppers.
The NBU points to smaller harvests and lower stocks of some soup-set vegetables. For that reason the annual increase in such produce remains noticeable.
Cucumbers are a somewhat different case. In autumn open-field production gradually stops supplying the market sufficiently. Instead, greenhouse farms play a bigger role, where production costs are often higher.
At the same time some vegetables and fruit did get cheaper in September. This is the usual seasonal situation, when increased supply temporarily lowers prices.
So it would be wrong to say that absolutely all food became more expensive. However, overall pressure on the food market has intensified.
Meat, fish and dairy products are also feeling price rises
It is becoming increasingly difficult for producers of meat and dairy products to maintain previous cost levels.
Feed, fuel, electricity, packaging and transportation require additional spending. If a firm could previously partially absorb these costs, prolonged increases make that harder.
In particular, the price of pork is affected by herd reductions and demand from processing enterprises.
For the dairy sector it is important not only what producers pay for raw milk but also uninterrupted operation of refrigeration equipment.
Not only food. Which goods became noticeably more expensive
September brought extra costs for those updating their wardrobes for autumn.
Statistics show that clothing and footwear together rose in price by 8.5% over the month. Separately, clothing increased by 9.4% and footwear by 7.6%.
Partly this is explained by seasonality. Summer sales end and new autumn collections appear on the shelves with different prices.
At the same time international procurement, transport costs and the trading networks’ operating conditions influence the prices of goods.
Overall, non-food goods became 2.4% more expensive over the year. That is, some seasonal categories showed much faster monthly growth than the non-food market did year on year.
Services became 13.7% more expensive
Price increases affected not only goods. According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the cost of services in September was 13.7% higher than a year earlier.
This is felt in many everyday situations. A trip on public transport, renting a home, education or using service companies can require higher spending.
The reasons vary. Some businesses raise prices because of expensive fuel, others because of premises rent, employee wages and operational costs.
Higher education has become noticeably more expensive
September traditionally brings a review of the cost of educational services. This year the changes proved quite significant.
According to Derzhstat, educational services rose in price by 17.4% over the month. Tuition at higher education institutions increased by 23.3%.
One reason the NBU cites is higher spending on staff wages for lecturers.
For families paying contract tuition such changes can mean a substantial additional burden.
For example, if a year of study previously cost 30 000 UAH, then after a 23.3% increase the same amount would be almost 37 000 UAH. This is a hypothetical example, but it illustrates the potential scale of costs.
Rent and transport are also adding to costs
The NBU links rising rents, in particular, to internal migration.
In cities receiving more newcomers, demand for flats can grow faster than supply. This creates conditions for higher rents.
Transport costs are rising too. More expensive fuel increases the cost of transport, and in some cities local authority decisions affect fares.
Administratively regulated prices overall accelerated growth to 13.6% year on year. Among the factors the NBU cites are higher public transport fares, water supply and alcoholic beverages.
Core inflation reached 8.8%. Why the NBU is watching this
Besides overall price growth, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) monitors so-called core inflation.
This measure helps to reveal more persistent changes in the cost of goods and services without some seasonal and administrative fluctuations.
In September core inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 8.8%. In August it was 8.1%.
Put simply, it is no longer only about seasonal price increases for cucumbers or eggs. Price pressure is spreading to goods whose prices usually change more calmly.
In particular, processed food products became 10.7% more expensive over the year.
A significant contribution to this dynamic came from processed meats, cheeses, fish, seafood and soft drinks.
For the NBU such statistics are important because they show how deeply rising producer costs affect the economy.
How inflation affects wages and household budgets
When prices rise faster than incomes, the purchasing power of money declines. This is noticeable even without complex economic calculations.
Suppose a family spent 10 000 UAH a month on groceries. If their shopping basket became 10% more expensive, buying the same goods would now require 11 000 UAH.
Over a year the additional costs in such a hypothetical example would amount to 12 000 UAH.
And that is only food, excluding fuel, transport, clothing, rent or other payments.
Price rises can be especially painful for people with fixed incomes. If wages or pensions do not change, households have to reallocate spending.
At the same time official 10% inflation does not mean every family spends exactly 10% more. It depends on which goods and services each household buys.
How rising inflation affects loans and deposits
Higher prices for goods and services have consequences for the financial market too.
To restrain inflationary pressure the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) uses the policy rate and other monetary policy instruments.
The policy rate affects the conditions under which banks attract and lend funds. It indirectly influences interest rates on hryvnia deposits and loans.
Could loan costs rise?
When interest rates remain high, new bank lending can become more expensive.
This is especially important for entrepreneurs. Businesses need funds to purchase goods, equipment, expand production or replenish working capital.
If financing becomes more expensive, enterprises are forced to plan expenses more carefully.
However, an increase in the policy rate does not mean payments on all previously issued loans will automatically rise. It depends on the contract terms, in particular whether the interest rate is fixed.
Is it more profitable to keep money in deposits?
For holders of hryvnia savings the relationship between deposit yields and inflation remains important.
For example, if a deposit yields 12% per annum and prices rise by 10% over the same period, the nominal rate exceeds inflation. But actual returns also depend on taxes on interest income.
That is why a high deposit rate does not always mean an equally large increase in the real purchasing power of savings.
Will accelerating inflation affect the dollar exchange rate?
After news of rising prices another question naturally arises. Will the dollar start to rise faster?
There is no direct automatic link. Inflation and the exchange rate in Ukraine are related, but they do not always move automatically in the same direction.
The foreign exchange market is influenced simultaneously by foreign trade, international financial assistance, demand for foreign currency and the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
At the same time the exchange rate can affect the prices of imported goods.
For example, if a Ukrainian company buys equipment or goods abroad, fluctuations in the cost of foreign currency affect its costs in hryvnia. Later this can be reflected in the final price.
So for businesses not only current inflation indicators matter but also predictability in the foreign exchange market.
The NBU’s inflation forecast for the end of 2026
As early as July the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecast that inflation would be 10% by the end of 2026. For 2027 the regulator expected it to slow to 6.9%.
However, the September data showed that actual price growth is outpacing the July forecast trajectory.
That does not mean the annual figure will necessarily continue to rise month after month. Inflation depends on many factors, some of which can change quite quickly.
The NBU warns that high costs for fuel, transportation and product storage will continue to support price pressure in the coming months.
Among the most important risks remain further attacks on infrastructure, fluctuations in world energy prices and possible problems with supplies of goods.
When the NBU will publish a new forecast
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) plans to present an updated macroeconomic forecast on 29 October 2026.
The more detailed Inflation Report is expected on 5 November 2026. It is there that the regulator should disclose assessments of economic risks and prospects for further price growth.
So far the latest indicators point to strengthening inflationary pressure. High fuel prices, logistics problems and rising producer costs continue to affect the cost of goods and services.
The coming months will show whether inflation will gradually slow down or the Ukrainian consumer market will enter winter with a new wave of price increases.
