According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), in the third quarter of 2026 businesses assessed their financial and economic condition and development prospects for the next 12 months more cautiously. Company executives expect staff reductions, a slowdown in sales growth and a decrease in investment spending.
Definitions: index — a measure that reflects changes in a set of prices or indicators; bond — a debt security; yield — the ratio of income received to invested funds, expressed as a percentage; domestic government bonds (OVDP) — state debt securities. Changes in firms’ expectations regarding investment and sales are reflected in demand for corporate bonds and in lending conditions affecting private investors.
Businesses are more pessimistic about firms’ financial condition
In the third quarter the balance of responses regarding firms’ current financial and economic condition stood at minus 7.0% versus minus 5.1% in the second quarter. Expectations for companies’ financial and economic condition over the next 12 months also worsened: the balance of responses fell to minus 4.3% compared with a positive 2.4% in the previous quarter.
The most restrained assessments of activity prospects were held by executives in the extractive industry, trade, transport and communications. By company size, the least optimistic were small and large firms, and cautious assessments prevailed across all companies except those engaged only in export operations.
Assessments of staff and sales
Respondents expected a further reduction in the number of employees at their firms over the next 12 months: the balance of responses — minus 6.7% (in the first quarter — minus 3.3%). Managers of firms in all surveyed activities except “other” were inclined to reduce staff, most of all in the extractive industry.
Survey participants still expected an increase in sales volumes over the next 12 months, including on external markets, but at significantly slower rates: balances of responses — 4.0% and 2.0% (in the second quarter — 18.4% and 17.0% respectively). Representatives of most sectors, except the extractive industry and construction, expected growth in the domestic market.
Investment spending will grow more slowly
Respondents expected investment spending on machinery, equipment and inventory to increase, but at a slower pace: the balance of responses 10.4% (in the second quarter — 15.5%). Positive assessments for future investment spending on construction work remained at 0.5% (in the second quarter — 2.1%).
Firms that attract foreign investment expected it to increase with a balance of responses 7.8% (in the second quarter — 8.9%). The share of respondents planning to attract foreign investment rose to 21.4% from 20.3%, with the highest expectations among energy and water supply companies.
Demand for credit and barriers to access
Survey participants lowered their assessments of the need for borrowed funds: the balance of responses stood at 32.6% compared with 35.3% in the second quarter. The share of respondents planning to take out bank loans changed little — 35.6% compared with 36.0% in the previous survey.
The share of firms planning to take out loans in the national currency rose to 86.9% (in the second quarter — 80.8%). High interest rates and other sources of financing most often influenced decisions to postpone borrowing — 45.5% and 42.0% respectively, while the impact of a complex application procedure fell to 21.5%. The share of companies planning to raise funds abroad was 7.9% compared with 6.5%, and the balance of responses on the tightness of credit access conditions was 11.6% (in the previous survey — 13.9%).
