According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the currency deficit in Ukraine rose in the third quarter of 2026 due to increased demand from businesses and households alongside a reduction in foreign exchange receipts from exports; the regulator sold $15.1 billion over the quarter.
Rising demand from defence spending and energy imports
Part of the budgetary defence spending was financed with funds from the defence component of the USL programme, and after conversion these funds entered the economy, increasing demand for foreign currency to pay for imported components and equipment. Imports of fuel also became more costly due to higher oil prices, and purchases of gas ahead of the heating season added further pressure on the foreign exchange market.
The restoration of damaged production and logistics infrastructure required imports of goods and materials; overall, goods imports totalled $25.7 billion in the third quarter. Demand from households for cash foreign currency rose to $1.7 billion equivalent, up from $1.2 billion in the second quarter.
Russian attacks reduced export foreign exchange receipts
In the third quarter foreign exchange receipts from goods exports fell to $8 billion from $10.2 billion in the previous quarter. From the third decade of July, Russian strikes and the blockade of the maritime corridor significantly restricted exporters’ logistical capabilities, in particular for agricultural firms and metallurgical companies.
The trade in goods deficit widened to $17.8 billion for the quarter, up from $15.5 billion in the second quarter. The agricultural sector’s share of foreign exchange receipts fell from almost 50% to about 40%, while the share of the mining and metallurgical sector remained above 10%.
Regulator interventions and October sales
To cover the shortfall of currency on the market, the regulator increased sales to $15.1 billion in the third quarter, up from $11.9 billion in the second quarter. Part of these sales were also conducted as an intermediary to channel international aid and USL funds towards financing the localisation of weapons production.
Large sales, together with smaller-than-expected inflows of international aid, affected international reserves: as of 1 October they stood at $47.1 billion, which the regulator estimates was sufficient to finance four months of imports. In October pressure on the market intensified — the official dollar exchange rate hit a record high five times and reached 45.60 UAH on 28 October; over the month the regulator sold about $6 billion, including $1.82 billion in the final week of October.
According to financial analyst Oleksii Shevchyshyn, one of the key factors behind the deficit is the large excess of imports over exports: in January–August 2026, goods worth $66.3 billion were imported, while exports amounted to $26.6 billion. He also points to rising demand for foreign currency from businesses and households and notes that the regulator’s interventions curb exchange rate volatility but do not eliminate the structural currency deficit.
