According to the Centre for Economic Strategy, from mid‑August Russia stepped up daytime air attacks on Kyiv: in October air raid alerts in the capital lasted 58 hours during daytime — the third‑highest figure since the start of the full‑scale war — and the city was under alert for 195 hours in total that month.
Daytime alerts have the greatest impact on economic activity because they force some businesses to suspend operations.
Duration of alerts and their monthly volume
In October Kyiv recorded 58 hours of air raid alerts during daytime — the third‑highest figure since the start of the full‑scale war. The total duration of alerts in the capital for the month reached 195 hours.
The 195‑hour figure in October is 20% lower than in the previous month, but nearly four times the average monthly level for the January–August 2026 period.
An hour of downtime and its estimated cost
The minister of economy estimates that each hour of downtime for enterprises caused by an air raid alert costs the economy about $45 mln.
Daytime air raid alerts particularly affect businesses that are forced to stop work during peak business hours.
GDP dynamics after 2022
After a 28.8% contraction in 2022 the economy began to recover: real GDP grew by 5.5% in 2023, by 2.9% in 2024 and by 1.8% in 2025. Growth rates are gradually slowing.
Weaker results are largely explained by the effects of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and other wartime challenges.
Labour market and migration
The labour market continues to feel the effects of the war: in mid‑January 2026 the number of new CVs rose and for the first time since 2022 exceeded pre‑war levels. The volume of new vacancies fluctuates between 120−130% of the baseline level.
On average there are 2.5 new CVs per new vacancy. The unemployment rate had been falling in recent years, but that decline essentially halted in 2026.
In 2025, 303,000 more citizens left Ukraine via western and south‑western borders than entered — 34% fewer than in 2024, when 459,000 more citizens left than returned.
Business expectations and factors worsening sentiment
The seasonally adjusted index of business expectations (IODA) deteriorated to 45.8 in October — the lowest reading since June–July 2024. The original IODA series also worsened and remained in negative territory.
As reported by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), factors that negatively affected business sentiment in October included intensified Russian attacks on energy, manufacturing, storage and logistics infrastructure, the return of power outages, higher fuel prices, export restrictions due to blocked ports and a shortage of skilled personnel.
Small business in Ukraine remains one of the avenues through which people seek self‑employment and income. Today small enterprises are characterised by adaptability and flexibility in the face of the challenges posed by martial law, energy instability and internal population migration.
