According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), in the third quarter of 2026 a survey of company managers showed that business downgraded its assessments of the economy’s prospects for the next 12 months and expects a contraction in the volumes of goods and services produced and a deterioration in the financial and economic condition of their own enterprises.
Forecast for the dollar exchange rate over 12 months
The average projected hryvnia exchange rate to the US dollar for the next 12 months was 46,90 UAH per USD, whereas in the second quarter of 2026 expectations were 46,12 UAH per USD. This figure is based on the results of the survey in the third quarter of 2026.
Most respondents (67,9%) expected that in a year the rate would be within 44,01−48,00 UAH per USD, while 27,4% predicted it would exceed 48 UAH per USD. For comparison, in the second quarter such expectations were held by 74,3% and 16,4% respectively.
Forecast for the euro exchange rate over 12 months
The average expected hryvnia exchange rate to the euro for the next 12 months was 54,85 UAH per EUR versus 54,42 UAH per EUR in the previous quarter. These figures are presented based on the results of the survey in the third quarter of 2026.
The share of respondents who expected the rate to be within 54,01−58,00 UAH per EUR increased from 46,4% in the second quarter to 55,6% in the third quarter of 2026.
Inflation forecast and factors driving price increases
The business-forecast annual inflation for the next 12 months changed little: in the third quarter the expected figure was 11,5% versus 11,6% in the previous survey. The data relate to the survey of company managers in the third quarter of 2026.
Inflation in the range of 7,6−15% was forecast by 60,4% of respondents, and a further 19,8% expected it to exceed 15%. Businesses named military hostilities and their consequences as the main factor driving consumer price increases — 85,5% of those surveyed pointed to this factor.
In the coming days attention should be paid to the official NBU exchange rate, the interbank market (the market where banks trade currency among themselves), the cash exchange rate and inflation data, as these indicators were used in the survey and influence business expectations.
