At the end of October the cash dollar exchange rate at exchange offices exceeded 47 UAH for the first time, and on 4 November the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) updated the official rate to 45.66 UAH/$. In explaining the reasons, the expert points to several factors, including budget payments and seasonality.
Restoration of budget payments and demand for foreign currency
Hlib Vyshlinsky, executive director of the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) explains that the hryvnia weakened owing to a rise in demand for foreign currency after the restoration of budget payments, reduced export inflows and seasonal factors. According to Taras Kotovych, senior financial analyst at the ICU group, on 30 October net inflows from the budget to the banking system totalled 64 billion UAH, part of which may have reached the foreign-exchange market.
A decline in foreign-currency proceeds from exports also affected the supply of currency: in July–September 2026 export proceeds amounted to $8.4 billion versus $9.5 billion for the same period last year. The agricultural sector and metallurgy were hit hardest.
Volume of NBU foreign-exchange interventions in October
The National Bank of Ukraine adheres to a managed flexibility exchange-rate regime and intervenes when fluctuations become too sharp. In October the net volume of the NBU’s foreign-exchange interventions reached almost $6 billion — a record monthly figure; in particular, during the last week of October the regulator sold $1.82 billion on the interbank market.
Foreign-exchange interventions helped to stabilise the situation after the sharp rise in demand at the end of the month, but such operations require significant resources, raising questions about the adequacy of international reserves.
Level of international reserves and sources of replenishment
Despite record interventions, Ukraine’s international reserves rose by 4% in October to $49.1 billion. The main source of replenishment was funds from international partners: during the month almost $3.7 billion was credited to the government’s foreign-currency accounts, including $3.3 billion from the European Union (EU) and $405 million through World Bank accounts.
Ukraine also received $4.6 billion from the EU under the defence tranche of the Ukraine Support Loan, which the government converted into hryvnia via the NBU. The available stock of foreign currency is sufficient to finance 4.2 months of future imports, exceeding the minimum benchmark of three months.
Centre for Economic Strategy’s exchange-rate forecast
In the macro forecast prepared by the Centre for Economic Strategy at the end of summer, analysts on average expected an exchange rate of 46 UAH/$ at the end of 2026 and 49 UAH/$ at the end of 2027. At the same time CES director Hlib Vyshlinsky notes: ‘If Ukraine meets its obligations to international partners on time, for at least the next six months, apart from the seasonal fluctuations in December–January, the rate faces no serious threat’.
Experts say the key factor for stability is the regularity of external financial assistance, as it determines the NBU’s ability to smooth sharp fluctuations in the foreign-exchange market.