Ella Libanova, director of the M. Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (NASU), said that after the end of the war and the lifting of martial law Ukraine could face a new wave of male migration. She links this to the risk that there will not be enough well-paid jobs and to people’s desire to reunite with family members abroad.
Reasons for a possible wave and direct quote
Libanova explained that after servicemen return to civilian life the state may struggle to provide them with jobs and salary levels that meet their expectations. She also highlighted the desire of many to reunite with family members who are already living abroad.
“Once men have the opportunity to leave, when they return from the front, we will not be able to offer them work that they will consider dignified, and a salary they will deem acceptable. And then the question arises: where will Ukrainian families be reunited — in Ukraine or beyond its borders? I am very afraid that a second, so‑called male migration wave will emerge,” said Ella Libanova.
Estimates of scale and demographic data
Earlier in August 2026 Libanova suggested that after the lifting of martial law an additional 500 to 600 thousand Ukrainian men could leave to join family members abroad. According to her, one of the decisive factors will be the economic situation: the ability to find stable employment, secure housing and receive a competitive salary.
Libanova also reported that, according to the latest estimate by the Institute for Demography, the population on territory under Ukraine’s control as of mid-2026 was approximately 28.5 million people — 500,000 fewer than the previous estimate of 29 million. She noted that the decline is driven by migration rather than solely by losses from hostilities, and that the return of refugees after the end of the war may be slow and will depend on security, housing conditions and employment prospects.
