JPMorgan has forecast an average annual return for Bitcoin (BTC) of 10% over the next 10–15 years; US equities — 7,5%, and gold — 5,5%.
Scenarios for Bitcoin
Under an optimistic scenario, JPMorgan analysts expect Bitcoin to deliver 16,6% per annum, while a negative scenario implies an annual decline of 11,2%. In their calculations they factored in changes in the supply of bitcoins relative to the money supply, the cryptocurrency’s adoption and its potential role alongside gold.
The bank emphasises that investing in Bitcoin carries a high risk. Forecast annual volatility for Bitcoin is 55%, whereas for gold it is 17,2%.
Comparison with equities and gold
The analysts gave average annual figures for other assets: US equities — 7,5% per annum, gold — 5,5% per annum. They estimate that Bitcoin’s price swings will be more than three times greater than changes in the value of gold.
Despite the projected returns, JPMorgan does not yet consider Bitcoin suitable as a portfolio diversification tool because of an unstable correlation of BTC with other assets. The bank views Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a possible hedge against the effects of monetary policy easing.
Factors that could affect the price
Earlier, JPMorgan analysts noted that Bitcoin’s price in the second half of 2026 will be influenced by the ability of the asset’s largest regular buyer, the company Strategy, to finance dividend payments of $1,7 bn and by the fate of the US bill CLARITY on crypto-market regulation. These events could be significant drivers of volatility.
The piece also mentioned the valuation methodology, in particular an analysis of the ratio of Bitcoin supply to the money supply and an assessment of the scale of cryptocurrency adoption.
