This is indicated by the Inflation Report of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU): in 2026 nominal wages will increase by 21,4%, and real wages — by 11,4%.
Nominal +21,4% and real +11,4% in 2026
The NBU notes that real wages are incomes adjusted for inflation, meaning their growth reflects changes in the price level. The regulator forecasts that growth in real incomes in 2026 will be 11,4%.
One of the factors sustaining inflationary pressure will be imbalances in the labour market: despite a weakening of business demand due to destruction, the shortage of labour will persist. The main causes are migration and mobilisation, which will constrain the supply of labour and force firms to increase labour costs.
Real wages will rise by 4−5% in 2027−2028
Starting from the first quarter of 2027 the NBU expects a gradual easing of inflationary pressure. The regulator cites the exhaustion of secondary effects from higher fuel prices, a slowdown in wage growth due to weaker demand for labour and subdued economic activity.
According to the forecast, in 2027−2028 real wages will increase by 4−5% each year. The NBU also points out that a shortage of skilled workers will remain, and labour productivity will suffer due to the destruction of productive capacity.
The regulator’s forecast assumes that the net outflow of people in 2026−2027 will be about 0,2 million people per year, while in 2028 a net return of migrants of approximately 0,1 million people is expected.
