The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said in its October 2026 report that in the third quarter the regulator sold $15.1 billion of currency on the market and recorded a rise in the currency deficit.
Increase in the currency deficit and market sales
In the third quarter of 2026 the need of businesses and households for foreign currency increased, while export inflows declined. The currency deficit (a shortage of foreign currency to meet demand) rose because of increased defence purchases, imports of fuel and gas, and the effects of Russian attacks on exporters.
The report states that to cover the higher demand the regulator sold $15.1 billion on the market during the quarter. The increased sales aimed to offset lower export inflows and other additional currency needs.
Cash currency stocks and cash replenishment operations
Results of cash replenishment operations showed that stocks of cash currency in bank tills are sufficient to meet customer needs. During the operation on 5 November the regulator offered banks $50 million and €50 million.
Banks requested only $40 million and €9 million, and all requests were fully satisfied.
Impact of shelling on GDP and inflation; dollar movements
According to the regulator’s estimate, intensified attacks on industrial enterprises, ports and logistics in the second half of 2026 will reduce the growth rate of real GDP by 1.9 percentage points (p.p.) and lead to external trade balance losses of $6.6 billion. The external trade balance is the difference between exports and imports.
The regulator estimated the additional contribution of shelling to annual inflation at roughly 0.7 percentage points (p.p.). It also noted that after the publication of the US October employment report the dollar strengthened: the number of new jobs exceeded forecasts by more than twofold, reinforcing expectations of a possible interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December.
