According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), net currency sales in October 2026 amounted to 5,997 billion dollars. That is 9% more than in September (5,519 billion dollars) and is the largest volume so far this year.
In October the NBU almost did not buy currency, while it sold 5,998 billion dollars.
Factors that will affect the exchange rate through the end of 2026
Until the end of 2026 the hryvnia exchange rate will depend on several groups of factors at once: the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine, the needs of the state budget, volumes of international financial assistance, the situation on the foreign exchange market and the state of the Ukrainian economy.
The dollar is directly affected by decisions of the US authorities and the Federal Reserve (Fed), while the euro is influenced by the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), the state of the Eurozone economy and the euro-to-dollar relationship on the international FOREX market.
Interbank supply and the key question
The interbank foreign exchange market (interbank) is the trading of currency between banks. The main question until the end of the year is whether the National Bank of Ukraine will be able to provide a sufficient supply of currency on the interbank foreign exchange market to cover demand from importers, businesses and the population.
Read the details in the article — Waiting for 50? On what will happen to the hryvnia by the end of 2026.
Things to watch in the coming days: the volumes of the NBU’s currency sales and purchases, supply on the interbank market, the volumes of international assistance and the decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB); also monitor the NBU’s official exchange rate, the interbank rate and the cash (retail) rate.
