According to the CE\/SEE Banking Report from Raiffeisen Research, in 2025 the combined net profit of banks in Central and South-Eastern Europe reached €31,5 bn, roughly on a par with the profits of Italy’s banking sector. Return on equity for regional banks in 2025 and in the first half of 2026 stood at 15−16% versus about 9% in the eurozone.
Forecasts for profitability in 2026 and beyond
Analysts at Raiffeisen Research estimate that in 2026 the figure may remain at the same level, and over the next five years regional profit could rise to €37−38 bn. According to the analysts, this level of profits corresponds to the expected realisation of the growth potential of the region’s markets.
Comparison with other markets shows that CE/SEE profitability remains among the highest in Europe, reflected in a higher return on equity compared with the eurozone.
Drivers of high profitability and related risks
The document cites a combination of banks’ financial resilience and the potential for economic growth as key drivers of profitability. Banks have weathered crises — Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the energy‑inflation crisis and new trade tensions — while maintaining strong financial results.
Credit portfolio quality remains relatively high: the share of problem loans in Central Europe averages 1,8%, in South-Eastern Europe 2,7%, while in the eurozone this indicator is about 2%. Moreover, average credit portfolio growth rates in the region are expected to remain close to double digits, with retail lending potentially growing by 10−12% a year, notably supported by mortgage lending.
Expansion through mergers and acquisitions is intensifying competition: Poland and Romania are becoming key platforms for expansion, and Romania could enter the top three markets in the region by assets and profitability by 2030. Austrian banking groups account for a significant share of foreign exposures — about 29% in Central Europe and 33% in South-Eastern Europe. Analysts warn of uneven prospects and cite important risks including the economic dynamics of individual countries, the cost of funding, regulatory decisions and banks’ ability to preserve credit portfolio quality amid faster loan growth.
