The Ukrainian banking system has preserved its financial resilience during the full-scale war, but the main challenges lie ahead, said Serhii Mamedov and Vasyl Furman during a panel discussion. The experts named expanding lending, resolving tax issues and establishing mechanisms for insuring war risks as priorities.
Financial resilience and operating through blackouts
According to Serhii Mamedov, over the years of the full-scale war banks have adapted and “have become better capitalised, more profitable and have genuinely changed during the war. The liquidity that now exists in the financial system did not exist before.” Vasyl Furman also emphasised the sector’s strength: “The banking sector today is one of the strongest sectors of our state. We can operate under blackout conditions.”
Furman reminded the audience of the POWER BANKING network, initiated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in 2022, which allows bank branches to operate without centralised power supply. He said that over 2.5 thousand branches across Ukraine can operate in such conditions.
Lending problems, taxes and risk insurance
Panel participants pointed out that banks’ financial resilience has not yet translated into a sufficient level of lending to the economy: the ratio of loans to GDP remains low, and a significant share of businesses do not use bank financing. Serhii Mamedov believes that to stimulate lending it is necessary to find a balance between capital requirements for banks, financial stability and the needs of businesses.
One contentious issue is the possible extension into 2027 of the elevated 50% rate of profit tax on banks. Serhii Mamedov said: “I believe this discourages the inflow of international capital into the banking financial system.” Vasyl Furman relayed the regulator’s position: “The NBU does not support increasing taxation. This is the official position of the National Bank of Ukraine.”
Furman estimated that continuing the higher taxation could bring about 20 billion UAH to the budget, but the funds left in the banking system could have enabled additional loans of 200–300 billion UAH. The discussion also emphasised the need for effective insurance of war risks, without which banks must factor in higher risks of damage or destruction of borrowers’ assets.
Foreign exchange reserves, interventions and international financing
According to participants, the NBU’s international reserves currently amount to about $47 billion and, under a favourable scenario, could rise to $70 billion by the end of the year. At the same time, the National Bank of Ukraine continues significant foreign exchange interventions of about $1–1.2 billion per week.
Vasyl Furman explained: “The level of foreign-exchange and gold reserves depends directly on how regularly and fully Ukraine receives external financing.” He also noted that Ukraine is expected to receive about $54 billion in international financing in 2026, and the timeliness of those inflows depends on meeting obligations to international partners.
Serhii Mamedov suggested that by the end of 2026 the dollar exchange rate could be close to 46 UAH per dollar. Vasyl Furman noted that with a policy of “managed flexibility” it is impossible to predict the exact year-end rate, but the situation on the foreign-exchange market will remain controlled. Furman also spoke about post-war prospects: “After the war, significant funds will indeed flow into Ukraine, but the window of opportunity will be quite short. I very much hope that after all the trials Ukraine will be able to develop successfully and, over the next 10–20 years, catch up with the countries of Eastern Europe on key economic indicators.”
