In the week of 9−14 November 2026, according to financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn, the dollar rate on the interbank foreign exchange market may be within 45,15−45,65 UAH, while on the cash market it may be 45,70−46,30 UAH. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), as expected, will continue to curb speculative demand for foreign currency.
Dollar rate ranges 9−14 November
The analyst forecasts that the interbank dollar rate will remain within 45,15−45,65 UAH, while the cash market may see a range of 45,70−46,30 UAH. Continued interventions by the NBU should ease speculative sentiment in the market.
It is assessed that an increasing number of exporters may sell foreign-currency earnings during a rate correction, while household demand for cash foreign currency may gradually decline after active purchases. The euros rate will largely depend on the EUR/USD pair, whereas the dollar is more sensitive to budget payments, import demand and decisions by the NBU.
Estimates of international reserves
The review states the current volume of international reserves at $49.1 billion. The NBU predicts an increase in reserves to $62.8 billion by the end of 2026, while the analyst expects a more modest figure around $52.5 billion.
$52.5 billion in the piece is presented as the author’s estimate, not the regulator’s official forecast. It is emphasised that the cited reserve figures need to be cross-checked against the latest NBU statistics.
Factors that will affect the rate
Among the main factors that could determine currency dynamics are both the regulator’s actions and market participants’ behaviour:
- currency interventions by the NBU, in particular selling currency to cover shortages on the interbank market (a lack of currency to cover operations);
- an uptick in exporters selling foreign-currency earnings;
- a decline in household demand for cash foreign currency after mass purchases;
- a slowdown in economic activity due to energy supply and logistics problems;
- large budget payments that increase hryvnia liquidity and support importers’ demand for foreign currency.
The analytical review also notes that, in the author’s assessment, the peak of currency frenzy is already behind us, and if the NBU continues interventions the gap between interbank and cash market rates may gradually narrow.
