S&P Global Ratings on 6 November 2026 lowered Poland’s long-term sovereign credit rating in the national currency from A to A−, and the short-term rating from A-1 to A-2. The decision was accompanied by a revision of the outlook on the long-term ratings from “stable” to “negative”; the decision was also confirmed by the Ministry of Finance of Poland.
Rating levels and outlook
The agency aligned the local-currency rating with the foreign-currency ratings, lowering it to A−. The outlook on the long-term ratings was changed from stable to negative, which opens the possibility of further downgrades.
A negative outlook means that further deterioration is possible if fiscal indicators do not improve. S&P sets out specific conditions that could lead to the next downgrade.
Assessments of debt and deficit
The agency estimates that Poland’s net public debt will exceed 70% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2029, compared with roughly 53% in 2025. S&P regards an increase in the debt burden of more than 20 percentage points over five years as one of the largest deteriorations in fiscal metrics globally.
S&P forecasts a general government sector deficit of 7.1% of GDP in both 2026 and 2027; the deficit is the excess of spending over budget revenues. The agency points to significant defence spending, rising social expenditures and high public-sector wage costs as key reasons for the deterioration in public finances.
Conditions for further rating changes
The agency allows for further downgrades if the high deficit and rising debt lead to more expensive sovereign borrowing, a deterioration in investor confidence or the need for sharp cuts in budget spending. Additional risks cited include political disagreements and a possible escalation of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
At the same time, S&P expects Poland’s economy to remain resilient: average real GDP growth of around 3% per year is forecast for 2027–2029. The agency notes it could restore a stable outlook if the government achieves a sustained reduction in the deficit and a gradual decline in debt without materially harming economic growth.
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