The population on territory under Ukraine’s control has fallen from about 37 mln to 27−28 mln people since the start of the full-scale invasion. The main reasons cited are the mass departure of citizens abroad, the occupation of some territories and a drop in birth rates.
►Read «Minfin» on Instagram: main news about investments and finance
Currently about 27−28 mln people on territory under Ukraine’s control
Estimates indicate that about 27−28 mln people now live in areas under the control of Ukrainian authorities. Separately, roughly 3−5 mln are in temporarily occupied territories, and more than 5 mln have gone abroad.
Population changes are driven by simultaneous factors: migration, the temporary loss of territories and low birth rates. These factors are cited as causes of the population decline in available estimates and statistics.
The total fertility rate fell to 0.8−0.9 in 2026
The total fertility rate fell from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to 0.8−0.9 in 2026, while a rate of about 2.1 children per woman is needed for simple replacement of generations. Natural population decline has also been recorded in the statistics.
In the first half of 2026 the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by about 3.5 times. Compared with the same period in 2025, the number of births fell by 16%.
Migration: about 5.6 mln refugees and plans to return
At the start of 2026 about 5.6 mln Ukrainian refugees were abroad. Among those surveyed, only 43% said they plan to return to Ukraine, whereas at the end of 2022 the figure was about 74%.
Almost 80% of those considering return said they would do so only after the war ends. The main factors influencing return are security, the ability to find work, income levels, housing availability and the restoration of infrastructure.
Scenarios to 2040 and associated risks
Under one demographic scenario the population could decline by 0.7−0.9% a year, and at that rate by 2040 there could be about 25 mln people on territory under Ukraine’s control. This scenario does not assume the return of occupied territories to Ukrainian control.
Demographers do not expect a sharp rise in fertility even after the war ends; in an adverse scenario, if the war continues into the 2030s, the fertility rate could fall to 0.6 children per woman. Experts note that the demographic crisis poses a long-term risk to the economy because of a shrinking working-age population, increased pressure on the pension system and complications for post-war recovery.
