WTM Global Travel Report 2026, prepared by Tourism Economics (Oxford Economics), forecasts a record 1.57 billion international tourist arrivals in 2026, 2% more than in 2025. In the Europe region foreign arrivals are expected to increase by 5%, while travellers will more often choose closer and shorter trips because of higher airfares, geopolitical instability and the rising cost of living.
Global nights and spending in 2026
Overall the number of tourist nights worldwide, including domestic and international trips, could total 23.9 billion. Traveller spending directly at destinations is forecast at $7.8 trillion — 9% higher than in 2025.
Three out of four consumers surveyed name their annual holiday an important priority. However, they are changing trip length, distance and destinations.
Route changes and regional impact
The European market in 2026 will grow faster than the global average: international arrivals to the region will increase by 5%, while nights by foreign leisure tourists will rise by 4%. WTM forecasts intra‑regional trips to grow by 3%.
Interregional, particularly long‑haul, trips are expected to fall by 3%. Long‑haul routes are being hit by more expensive air travel, higher oil prices and security risks, as well as reduced hub capacity at Gulf countries’ aviation hubs. The Middle East is forecast to see a 40% decline in international tourist flows — the only major destination with an expected drop in arrivals.
Projections for 2027 and long‑term forecasts to 2032
In 2027 the pace of international tourism growth is expected to accelerate: global arrivals could rise by 8%, while interregional trips could increase by 11%. Europe is forecast another 5% gain, while the Middle East could recover by 43%, although even in that scenario arrivals would remain below 2025 levels; report analysts warn that new conflicts could slow the recovery.
Over the long term to 2032 Europe could receive 226 million more tourists than in 2026, with average annual growth of around 4%. Global international tourism could reach 2.2 billion arrivals by 2032, and total leisure spending in Europe in 2026 is forecast at $2.05 trillion; international tourist spending is expected to rise by 11% and domestic spending by 8% in nominal dollars, unadjusted for inflation.
