According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the government and government‑guaranteed debt will exceed 100% of gross domestic product (GDP) during 2026–2028.
Reasons for the rise in debt
The NBU explains that the main drivers of the rising debt burden will be large budget financing needs for defence, infrastructure reconstruction and economic support. The regulator also revised down its forecast for the consolidated budget deficit (a deficit is when expenditures exceed revenues) excluding grants in revenues.
The forecast revision is linked to increased financing needs for arms production in Ukraine and the modernisation of the defence‑industrial complex, which raises the need for borrowing.
The impact of international assistance on the debt
The NBU assumes a conservative scenario under which not‑yet‑confirmed international financial assistance will arrive mainly in the form of loans. In that case the debt burden will be higher than under a scenario in which part of the assistance is converted into non‑repayable grants.
At the same time, the bulk of external government debt consists of long‑term concessional loans from international partners. According to the regulator, favourable terms on such financing together with domestic debt management will help support the sustainability of public finances in the medium term.
Current debt stock as of 30 September 2026
According to the Ministry of Finance, as of 30 September 2026 the government and government‑guaranteed debt stood at 9.54 trillion UAH or $212.61 billion at the exchange rate on the reporting date. About 66.4% of the debt portfolio was accounted for by financing from international financial organisations and foreign governments.
The weighted average cost of public debt was 4.44%, and the average time to maturity was 12.87 years. As of the end of the second quarter of 2026 the debt‑to‑GDP ratio was 92% under the Ministry of Finance methodology, which does not include the EU loan under the ERA mechanism.
Outlook for 2028
The NBU expects that in 2028 there will be a gradual reduction in the budget deficit and a smaller role for government stimulus in the economy. The regulator forecasts that private investment will play a greater role in restoring productive capacity and modernising enterprises.
At the same time, the debt burden is forecast by the NBU to remain above 100% of GDP. Exceeding that level does not mean an automatic default: the ability to service the debt also depends on borrowing costs, maturities, budget revenues and access to international assistance.
