In the third quarter of 2026 real GDP of Ukraine contracted by 0,7% year on year and by 0,5% quarter on quarter, according to a provisional estimate by the State Statistics Service (Derzhstat), published on 4 November contains.
Quarterly and annual figures
By Derzhstat’s provisional estimate, the annual decline amounted to 0,7%, the quarterly decline — 0,5% after adjusting for seasonal effects. The figures are based on statistical information about the rates of growth or contraction of output across different types of economic activity.
The published data are preliminary. More complete GDP data for the third quarter will be released by the State Statistics Service in December 2026.
Previous quarters and regulators’ forecasts
The contraction in the third quarter followed economic growth of 0,4% in the second quarter and a decline of 0,6% in the first quarter of 2026. These figures reflect a change in dynamics across consecutive quarters.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) at the end of October downgraded its 2026 outlook, cutting its forecast from expected growth of 1,8% to a contraction of 0,4%, and lowered the 2027 forecast from 2,8% to 0,4%. The World Bank had projected growth of 1,2% in 2026, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) revised its 2026 forecast from 2,2% to 1,5% and its 2027 forecast from 4% to 2,5%.
