What the National Bank of Ukraine changed
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) published an interim report on the results of easing foreign-exchange restrictions under the Strategy adopted in July 2023. The active phase of liberalisation began in May 2024 and, since then, the regulator has implemented a series of measures for the gradual return to a more flexible exchange-rate formation.
The report provides quantitative summaries. In total, 154 measures have been implemented under the Roadmap, of which 144 are aimed at easing restrictions and a further 10 are designed to prevent circumvention of the rules. The NBU also records indicators of stimulative liberalisation with an operation volume of 1054 million US dollars and a free limit of 875 million US dollars.
| Indicator | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Strategy and actions | Strategy adopted in July 2023 | 154 measures implemented under the Roadmap |
| Liberalisation phase | Before May 2024 active liberalisation was not carried out | Active phase started in May 2024 |
| Stimulatory liberalisation | Was not active | Volume of operations 1054 million US dollars. Free limit 875 million US dollars |
| Measures against circumvention of the rules | Previously such measures were separate | 10 measures included to prevent circumvention of the rules |
Why the NBU is loosening the rules
The NBU says the steps aim to restore foreign-exchange regulation to the basis that existed before the full-scale war, move to a more flexible exchange rate and resume inflation targeting. The Roadmap sets the sequence of changes and foresees the gradual implementation of steps provided the relevant macroeconomic preconditions are met.
Decisions are taken holistically, taking into account the macroeconomic situation and market conditions. The NBU is introducing easing measures together with mechanisms to prevent circumvention of the rules so as not to allow unproductive capital outflows.
Explanation of key terms
Interbank denotes currency trading between banks on specialised trading platforms; this is the main venue for forming the market exchange rate for large operations. The US dollar index (DXY) is an international indicator of the dollar’s strength against a basket of currencies and is mentioned when discussing global pressure on a currency.
Interventions are purchases or sales of currency by the central bank on the market to smooth exchange-rate fluctuations. The policy rate is the rate at which the central bank provides loans to commercial banks and which influences market rates and the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments.
How the changes affected businesses
Legal entities received significant relaxations in current operations. Business now has expanded opportunities for attracting investment and loans: foreign investors can invest in the equity of Ukrainian enterprises or provide loans and, if necessary, repatriate profits and receive timely payments on loan principal and servicing.
The set of incentives to attract new capital has also been expanded. Business can carry out operations above basic limits within investment, donor, loan and additional limits. The total volume of operations under stimulative liberalisation is 1054 million US dollars with a free limit of 875 million US dollars.
What changed for individuals and non-residents
Individuals can now buy cash foreign currency without limits. In addition, within limits they are allowed to purchase non-cash foreign currency, bank precious metals, securities of foreign issuers and to make card payments on foreign platforms, which expands options for savings and payments.
Non-residents may buy and transfer currency within the funds received as wages or payments equated to wages. Ukrainians abroad can pay for goods, services and accommodation from hryvnia accounts within limits by card or SWIFT transfers, and from foreign-currency cards without limits for goods and services.
Economic effect and current indicators
The NBU emphasises that the measures are aimed at reducing the shadow economy and creating conditions for restoring growth. At the same time, the regulator structures each step to minimise the risk of rule circumvention and unproductive capital outflows.
According to the report, the share of currency purchases and outbound transfers related to liberalisation remains stable at about 4% and 6% of total purchases and transfers respectively. In addition, about 30% of the transfer volume is companies’ own currency, which indicates the significant role of domestic operations in the structure of capital flows.
What to watch for in the coming days
The NBU will proceed gradually and next steps will be tied to macroeconomic preconditions, so it is important to monitor several key indicators. Watch the official NBU exchange rate, the interbank market, the cash exchange rate, the policy rate and the volume of market interventions.
Also pay attention to movements in international indicators, notably the US dollar index (DXY), and to the regulator’s announcements about the implementation of the next stages of the Roadmap. These indicators will signal the future pace of easing foreign-exchange rules and possible consequences for liquidity and exchange-rate volatility.
The full interim report is available on the regulator’s website at the link published, and this article was prepared taking into account commentary and published data on financial platforms, among others.
